The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is poised to secure board approval for the fifth review of Ghana’s bailout programme in December 2025, according to a forecast by IC Research. This approval follows a significant staff-level agreement reached between the Government of Ghana and the IMF in October 2023, after Ghana successfully met all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the period ending June 2025.
Approval of the fifth review will unlock a crucial disbursement of US$385 million, which will bolster Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves just ahead of a major debt payment. In January 2026, Ghana faces a Eurobond debt service payment estimated at US$689 million, making the IMF funds critical to maintaining financial stability.
IC Research highlighted a notable shift to a more positive and confident tone from the IMF during the fifth review, contrasting with the more cautious and softer assessments seen in the programme’s earlier reviews. “We took a closer view of the language adopted by the Fund at the end of the fifth review and inferred a more positive and tangibly confident assessment of the latest performance and near-term economic prospects,” the firm said. The IMF praised Ghanaian authorities for their “strong” actions to stabilize the financial sector and recognized “notable strides” made in tackling longstanding challenges in the energy sector.
The Fund concluded that Ghana’s macroeconomic stabilization is starting to take hold. Inflation is forecasted to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 8.0% ±2.0%, paving the way for a gradual normalization of monetary policy. IC Research interpreted this as a sign of the IMF’s confidence in the sustainability of Ghana’s disinflation trend and its support for the Central Bank’s measured move towards lowering policy rates.
Positive Economic Outlook and IMF Confidence
The IMF also expressed optimism that the positive economic momentum will continue into 2026. This sentiment stands in sharp contrast to the progressively tempered optimism in the earlier reviews, where performance assessments fell from “strong” in the first review, to “generally strong” in the second, “generally satisfactory” in the third, and significantly deteriorated in the fourth review due to many indicators missing targets.
IC Research views this upbeat fifth review as a positive signal for a smooth approval process by the IMF Executive Board, which would facilitate the immediate disbursement of the US$385 million to support Ghana’s budget and balance of payments.
Furthermore, the fund injection is expected to reinforce Ghana’s net international reserves, which stood at US$8.4 billion in August 2025—equivalent to 3.6 months of import coverage and already above the programme’s target of three months by 2026.
The anticipated approval and financial boost mark a hopeful turning point in Ghana’s IMF-supported economic recovery, reflecting stronger fiscal discipline and improved sectoral reforms that contribute to a more stable and promising economic future.
Story by: Mercy Addai Turkson #ahotoronline.com