Databank Research forecasts a relatively stable Ghanaian cedi in 2026, projecting a year-end depreciation of 7.20% against the US dollar. This would see the cedi close the year at GH¢12.85 per dollar.
The prediction, detailed in Databank’s 2026 Economic Outlook, accounts for demand pressures from bulk importers, energy costs, and Eurobond repayments assuming no major shocks. It relies on conservative monthly inflows of about GH¢750 million from the Gold Board (GOLDBOD) and reforms in small-scale mining to deliver steady gold-backed support. These factors should help the Bank of Ghana manage expectations and ease currency volatility.
External tailwinds include ongoing IMF and World Bank program support, fostering positive market sentiment. The report also notes a global shift away from US dollar reserves, led by China stockpiling gold amid US policy uncertainties. This could elevate gold’s status from Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA), enabling its use as repo collateral though BRICS talks on this remain preliminary due to volatility, custody, and trust issues.
Even without this scenario, Databank holds a neutral-to-positive view, bolstered by stricter forex rules and robust reserves to handle moderate pressures.
Story by: Mercy Addai Turkson#ahotorfmonline.com