Speaking on Ahotor FM’s Adekyee Mu Nsem programme with Citizen Kofi Owusu in Accra, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwa, says the ongoing debate over whether former President John Dramani Mahama could seek another presidential term has significant political implications for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). According to him, the uncertainty is already influencing the decisions of other potential presidential aspirants ahead of the 2028 elections.
Responding to discussions about an alleged third-term agenda, Mussa Dankwa said the NDC needs early clarity on its presidential candidate because uncertainty over Mr. Mahama’s intentions is shaping the calculations of other aspirants within the party.
He explained that if former President Mahama decides to contest, several individuals believed to harbour presidential ambitions may opt out of the race to avoid the enormous financial and logistical costs associated with nationwide campaigns. He added that similar strategic considerations also exist within the New Patriotic Party (NPP), where supporters of former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia are equally interested in knowing who the NDC will eventually present as its flagbearer.
Mussa Dankwa noted that every presidential contest carries significant financial implications, describing the decision to contest without certainty as a political gamble that could either yield success or result in substantial losses.
Touching on possible contenders within the NDC, he mentioned names that have featured prominently in public discussions, including Johnson Asiedu Nketia, popularly known as “General Mosquito,” Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, Julius Debrah, and Haruna Iddrisu. However, based on polling conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, he said the strongest competition currently appears to be between Dr. Ato Forson and Johnson Asiedu Nketia, with other prospective aspirants polling considerably lower among delegates.
He stressed that if only one of the leading contenders eventually files to contest, the party could produce an unopposed candidate. However, should more than one aspirant enter the race, delegates will determine the outcome through a competitive primary election.
On the NDC’s internal elections, Mussa Dankwa said the recently concluded branch elections have reinforced the preferences of the party’s grassroots. According to him, more than 80 per cent of delegates are already familiar with the individuals they are likely to support at the constituency, regional and national levels, making any significant shift in delegate preferences before the presidential primaries unlikely.
The pollster also disclosed findings from Global InfoAnalytics’ head-to-head surveys involving Dr. Bawumia and several personalities considered potential NDC flagbearers. He said the results indicate that electoral outcomes vary depending on the candidate.
According to him, Dr. Bawumia currently leads in direct contests against some prospective candidates, including Alabi, Okoboku and Dr. Prah. However, the survey found that other NDC figures perform more strongly. He revealed that Haruna Iddrisu polled 51 per cent against Dr. Bawumia, while Dr. Ato Forson recorded 54 per cent in the June survey.
He further disclosed that a more recent telephone tracking poll showed Dr. Ato Forson’s support rising to 58 per cent in a direct matchup against Dr. Bawumia, suggesting that public opinion continues to evolve.
Mussa Dankwa cautioned against assuming that every NDC aspirant would automatically defeat Dr. Bawumia in the 2028 presidential election. Instead, he said the available data suggests that only some potential candidates currently enjoy a measurable electoral advantage over the former Vice President.
He also announced that Global InfoAnalytics has introduced a continuous telephone tracking survey in which the same respondents will be interviewed every two months to monitor changes in public opinion. In addition, the organisation will continue conducting nationwide random-sample surveys every 90 days to provide updated insights into Ghana’s political landscape ahead of the 2028 general elections.
Story by Stephen Kwaku Owusu Mintah | Ahotoronline | Accra, Ghana.