The contest for leadership of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of the 2028 presidential election is taking a clearer shape, as conflicting polls, political interests, and prophecies increasingly point to former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the front runner. Meanwhile, Kennedy Agyapong is projected to come close but is not unlikely to force the race into a second round.
The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musah Dankwah, made these observations during an interview on Adkyee Mu Nsem, a morning show on Ahotor 92.3 FM in Accra, hosted by Citizen Kofi Owusu.
According to Mr. Dankwah, available projections suggest that Dr. Bawumia is likely to surpass the 50 percent threshold, positioning him as the leading candidate to win the party’s presidential primaries. He emphasized that this assessment is grounded in measurable indicators on the ground.
Mr. Dankwah further outlined key factors indicating that Dr. Bawumia is on course to win the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primaries scheduled for January 31, 2026. Global InfoAnalytics’ final poll, released on January 23, projects Dr. Bawumia to secure 57 percent of the votes, giving him a comfortable lead over his competitors.
He attributed the projection to several factors, including voter demographics, delegates’ preference for experienced candidates, and critical candidate qualities such as electability and favorability.
“First and foremost is the demography of NPP voters. Only 12 percent of delegates are under 34 years old. The party, being conservative, generally does not favour mavericks or disruptive candidates,” he explained.
Mr. Dankwah also noted that experience plays a significant role in delegates’ choices, with 45 percent believing that presenting a candidate for a second time enhances the party’s chances in a general election.
Candidate appeal and favorability ratings were also key considerations. “Delegates want someone who can win the general election. Dr. Bawumia recorded a 93 percent favourability rating, followed by Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 86 percent, Engineer Kwabena Agyepong at 85 percent, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 83 percent, and Kennedy Agyapong at 85 percent,” he stated.