Political instability poses significant challenges to firms’ investment and development. While private sector growth relies on market opportunities and an enabling business environment, it ultimately hinges on the perceptions and decisions of investors and managers. Their understanding of obstacles and opportunities is crucial.
Elections, as pivotal events, can prompt changes in regulations and public policies, potentially leading to social unrest that affects business operations. Thus, elections can significantly influence how firms perceive political instability and how investors behave.
The relationship between elections and perceptions of political instability has garnered little attention as Ghana approaches its polls on December 7. Since returning to constitutional rule in 1992, Ghana has experienced seven consecutive presidential and parliamentary elections, marked by three peaceful transitions of power (2001, 2009, and 2017). However, these elections have not been free from violence, and incidents have escalated alongside increasing electoral competition. The rise of political vigilante groups during elections further threatens Ghana’s democracy, peace, and stability.
Electoral violence manifests in various forms, including verbal and physical assaults, property destruction—especially targeting political opponents—and the tampering of electoral materials. Key actors in electoral violence include primary actors (youth from political parties, vigilante groups, and party supporters), secondary actors (candidates and political leaders), and external actors (Election Commission staff, security forces, and community leaders).
Going forward several structural causes of electoral violence are: the “winner-takes-all” political culture, unemployment and poverty, and polarized chieftaincy disputes. Proximate causes include electoral malpractice, lack of parental care, political influence over media, distrust in security agencies, and integrity issues within the Electoral Commission (EC).
Factors like ignorance, peer influence, and unfulfilled political promises also drive electoral violence. Motivations for forming vigilante groups include mistrust of state institutions, the need for internal party security, the pursuit of political power, and the perception of vigilantism as a business model. Reasons for individuals joining these groups often involve employment, rewards, recognition, and protection from legal consequences.
Concerns regarding drug use among political vigilantes have emerged, with reports of substances like tramadol being abused, leading to reckless behavior and crime without regard for victims.
Despite the recent enactment of the Vigilantism and Related Offences Law, 2019 (Act 999), skeptics argue that more focus should be placed on enforcing existing laws. A lack of political will, corrupt police practices, and interference from traditional authorities may hinder effective enforcement.
Optimistically, I hope that ongoing dialogue between the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), facilitated by the National Peace Council and EC, will foster free and fair elections and enhance public confidence in the electoral process. However, public awareness of these dialogues and their outcomes is essential.
The Electoral Commission of Ghana should promote inter-party dialogues at all community levels, addressing misinformation that breeds suspicion. Capacity-building sessions for polling agents on electoral laws and procedures are also vital, as many agents lack understanding of these laws, impacting their actions during elections.
The EC must reaffirm its commitment to free and fair elections and ensure the integrity of its staff recruitment process. Elections are crucial for democratic governance, facilitating smooth transitions between leaders and managing social and political conflicts. However, in some cases, they can exacerbate underlying tensions and lead to violence, particularly if the outcomes are contested.
In summary, while elections are intended to promote stability, they can also heighten perceptions of political instability, especially if results are disputed. Understanding these dynamics is essential for fostering a more stable and democratic environment in Ghana.
Story by: Alexander Kukah
