Research on the risks associated with democratization has long indicated that elections can ignite civil conflict. However, this discourse often remains separate from the growing body of research focused on electoral integrity. We aim to examine how variations in the quality of elections influence the potential for military conflict.
We argue that electoral integrity significantly impacts perceptions of political legitimacy and the willingness of actors to adhere to established rules. While high-quality elections typically do not heighten the risk of civil conflict, low-integrity elections can breed grievances and diminish the government’s and opposition’s ability to make credible commitments to prevent violence. Our findings strongly support this hypothesis: flawed presidential elections increase the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with a history of civil strife. This conclusion is robust, even when addressing the endogeneity of elections and electoral quality.
Elections are a fundamental component of democratic governance and a means of managing political competition peacefully. However, when the political process falters, elections can become a catalyst for violence, leading to devastating consequences, as seen in various regions worldwide, including the recent situation in Gabon.
Electoral violence is fundamentally a form of political violence rooted in unresolved grievances and a belief that these issues cannot be addressed within the existing political framework. Such violence can manifest in various forms, including intimidation, assaults, and even assassinations, targeting individuals or symbols associated with the electoral process.
Over recent years, there has been an increasing focus on elections and violence, prompting practitioners and politicians to seek improvements in electoral processes and monitoring to reduce the potential for violence. While elections are not inherently violent, they can trigger conflicts against a backdrop of long-standing grievances and disenfranchisement.
Factors Increasing the Risk of Election-Related Violence
The causes of election-related violence are complex and differ across countries. However, several common factors can increase the likelihood of violence:
Contexts of Transition: Countries moving from conflict to democracy or from authoritarianism to multi-party systems often face heightened risks. Incomplete disarmament and deep societal divisions can exacerbate tensions during elections.
Weak State Structures: Inadequate political party systems, dysfunctional institutions, and high levels of corruption can undermine stability. Politicized or unprofessional security forces may further compromise law and order, increasing the potential for violence.
Social Divisions: A lack of power-sharing arrangements can create instability. Insufficient policies to ensure the participation of diverse groups in decision-making can fuel sentiments of exclusion and discrimination.
Economic Inequality: High levels of economic disparity can generate discontent among marginalized groups, making them more susceptible to recruitment for violence, especially among disenfranchised youth.
Elements Raising the Risk of Violence
Electoral Systems: Proportional electoral systems may better accommodate social divisions, while other systems can exacerbate inequalities and marginalization, leading to violence.
Perceived Electoral Manipulation: Claims of fraud, whether legitimate or not, can incite violence, especially among candidates and their supporters.
High Stakes: When elections are viewed as essential for livelihood and resource control, the competition can become intensely factionalised, leading to potential violence.
Zero-Sum Politics: Fears of exclusion can drive parties to disrupt elections, particularly if incumbents feel threatened and resort to violence to maintain power.
Close Outcomes: Tight electoral margins can lead to allegations of fraud, resulting in clashes between opposing factions.
Mitigating Election-Related Violence
A poorly conducted election does not guarantee violence; however, a credible electoral process can diminish the likelihood of igniting existing tensions. Key elements to reduce the potential for election-related violence include:
Trust in Election Management: Building public confidence in electoral bodies through impartial selection processes is crucial.
Consultative Approaches: Engaging a wide range of stakeholders throughout the electoral process fosters a sense of joint responsibility and encourages peaceful conduct.
Level Playing Field: Ensuring equal opportunities for all participants, including access to state media and protection of human rights, is essential.
Voter Inclusivity: A credible voter registration process and fair constituency delineation are vital to avoid discrimination and enhance legitimacy.
Transparency: Clear communication of decisions and results at all stages of the electoral process helps maintain public confidence and reduces the risk of fraud.
Dispute Resolution: A transparent and efficient system for handling electoral disputes can build trust and encourage formal redress, reducing the likelihood of violence.
Story by: Alexander Kukah
