Tema Central Constituency, has become a significant battleground judging from recent elections. Historically, the constituency has fluctuated between supporting the two major political parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
This report seeks to explore past election results, voting patterns, and key demographic shifts in Tema Central to understand the factors that may influence the upcoming election in determining NDC’s overall victory.
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NDC STATION VOTER ASSESSMENT SURVEY OF OPPOSITION STRONGHOLDS IN GREATER ACCRA; TEMA CENTRAL CONSTITUENCY UNDER REVIEW
PART TWOAccra, Ghana 28 October 2024.
- Executive Summary
This report examines the electoral trends in the Tema Central Constituency, particularly focusing on recent elections and how emerging patterns predict victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the upcoming December 7 general election. It reviews voter behavior, party performance, and socio-political factors shaping the voting environment in the constituency. Through analyzing voter demographics and historical data, the report suggests that the NDC’s growing influence in the constituency could play a part in winning the general elections come December 7 if key factors remain consistent.
- Introduction Tema Central Constituency, has become a significant battleground judging from recent elections. Historically, the constituency has fluctuated between supporting the two major political parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). This report seeks to explore past election results, voting patterns, and key demographic shifts in Tema Central to understand the factors that may influence the upcoming election in determining NDC’s overall victory.
- Methodology
Data for this report was gathered from several sources, including:
Official electoral results from the Electoral Commission of Ghana for previous general elections.
Demographic statistics from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).
Public opinion surveys and political analysis reports.
Interviews with political analysts familiar with Tema Central politics.
The report focuses on electoral data from 2012, 2016, and 2020 as critical reference points to predict the December 7 polls.
- Findings/Results
5.1 Past Election Results
The Tema Central Constituency has shown fluctuating support between the NPP and NDC over the last decade. NDC’S performance has remained very competitive with marginal vote increase from 2016 to 2020 with NPP losing 5% of votes to NDC in the period. Though NPP has won Tema Central in the last three elections, it has not been a dominant victory compare to some of their strongholds in the Ashanti region.
NDC Station conducted a voter survey in three electoral areas across 12 polling stations in Tema Central Constituency with a hundred and fifty respondents between the ages of eighteen and sixty five. Seventy one responded to vote for NDC come December 7. Factors influencing their decision on the part of government is inflation and the rate of unemployment in the country. Also the opposition flagship policies such as the 24 hour economy, the women’s bank and the “no fee stress” policy played a significant role in their choice of poll. The pattern of responses shows a trend of the youthful voter population below 45 years voting more for the NDC as well as first time voters. Based on the above assessment, NDC Station is predicting a 3% marginal vote increase on the 2020 presidential election results leading to closing the gap significantly and winning the general election.
2012 Elections: NPP (50%) narrowly won with a small margin with a difference of 2% over the NDC (48%)
2016 Elections: NPP increased its majority, with a significant swing in voter support. The NDC, however, remained competitive.
2020 Elections: The NPP retained the seat, but the margin of victory shrunk considerably, indicating a resurgence of NDC support.
5.2 Voter Turnout Trends
Voter turnout in Tema Central has remained relatively high, with an average of 70%. Currently, the voter population stands at sixty four thousand eight hundred and ninety seven, with majority being youthful.Notably, in 2020, the turnout for NDC increased by over 10%, while the NPP saw only marginal growth. The constituency’s youthful population and urbanization have been key factors in this dynamic.
5.3 Demographic Shifts
Tema Central’s population has grown rapidly, with significant numbers of young voters and migrants moving into the constituency. This shift has brought in more middle-class voters, many of whom have expressed dissatisfaction with the current NPP administration’s handling of economic challenges, such as unemployment and inflation, the skyrocketing of fuel prices and corruption. This demographic is often seen as a swing group with the potential to shift elections which currently stands in favor of NDC
- Discussion
6.1 Changing Political Dynamics
The reduction in the NPP’s margin in 2020 suggests that the political landscape in Tema Central is becoming more competitive. Economic dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth and lower-income voters, is a growing concern, and the NDC has been tapping into this frustration through their campaigns. Additionally, the NDC has effectively mobilized grassroots support, particularly among newer residents.
6.2 Impact of Economic Conditions
The rising cost of living, driven by inflation and high unemployment rates, has eroded some of the NPP’s support base. The NDC has strategically positioned itself as the party capable of addressing these issues. If these economic challenges persist, the NDC may continue to gain ground in Tema Central.
6.3 Voter Behavior and Party Loyalty
Though the NPP has historically enjoyed strong loyalty in Tema Central, the growing dissatisfaction with their governance—especially regarding local economic issues—has led to a weakening of this loyalty. Meanwhile, the NDC has capitalized on the national debate on social programs, such as the 24 hour economic policy, the symbolic implication of the Free Education positioning itself as a party for change, development and inclusion.
- Conclusion
Based on the analysis of the survey, past elections, demographic shifts, and current voter sentiment, NDC Station predict a strong possibility that the NDC will close the gap by 3% or win the presidential elections in the Tema Central Constituency. The narrowing margins of victory for the NPP, combined with the NDC’s growing appeal among young voters and economically frustrated residents, suggest that if the NDC maintains its current momentum and addresses key local concerns, it is poised for success come December 7.
- Recommendations
- NDC Focus on Youth and Economic Policies: The NDC should focus on issues affecting young voters, such as unemployment and job creation. Economic hardship remains a primary concern, and targeted policies could sway more voters.
- Grassroots Campaigning: Expanding grassroots efforts will be critical to the NDC’s success. Mobilizing new residents and lower-income voters will help strengthen its base.
- Engage Swing Voters: The NDC should actively engage swing voters in the middle-class areas, highlighting alternatives to current NPP policies and offering concrete solutions to local challenges.
- Sustain Momentum: Continuous voter engagement, even outside of the election cycle, will help maintain the gains made by the NDC in the constituency.
- References
Electoral Commission of Ghana (2012, 2016, 2020 Results)
Ghana Statistical Service, Population and Housing Census (2021)
Political Analysis Reports and Public Opinion Surveys
Signed
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NDC Station
Mr Smith P Boahene
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