The credibility of Global InfoAnalytics remains robust, with its polling consistently free from political bias. The institution relies on factual data sampling to produce projections that align with the public’s and institutional desires. As the December 7, 2024, election approaches, the research group is working on additional variables to refine its final projections, expected between November 28 and 30.
Musa Dankwa, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, shared these insights during the Adekyee Mu Nsem morning show on Ahotor 92.3 FM. He noted that feedback from their October projections placed John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), at 52%, while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) was trailing at 41.3%. Dankwa emphasized that these figures could fluctuate as the election date draws near.
The latest poll results suggest that Mahama, Ghana’s former president, is leading in the presidential race. According to the poll, Mahama is set to win with 52%, while Bawumia follows with 41.3%. The poll carries a margin of error of 1.9%.
Both Mahama and Bawumia, who are the primary contenders for the presidency, are focusing on issues that matter most to voters, including the economy, jobs, education, and infrastructure. Mahama, 65, served as president from 2012 to 2017 and is running for re-election as the NDC candidate. During his presidency, Mahama invested heavily in infrastructure, although his administration was also criticized for power shortages, economic instability, and corruption allegations, though Mahama himself was never directly implicated.
Bawumia, 60, is running for the NPP and is seen as a key player in the party’s economic agenda. He has a background as an economist and former central banker. His candidacy comes at a time when Ghana is grappling with one of its worst economic crises in decades, having defaulted on much of its $30 billion external debt in 2022.
Mahama and Bawumia are both from northern Ghana, a region historically dominated by the NDC, though the NPP has made significant inroads there in recent years. Political analysts predict that the election will likely be a close contest, with the possibility of a run-off.
According to recent forecasts from organizations such as the Economist Intelligence Unit and Fitch Solutions, Mahama’s NDC is favored to win, largely due to the NPP’s poor economic performance under President Nana Akufo-Addo. Ghana’s current government secured a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2023, which has been essential in addressing the nation’s economic challenges.
Political analyst Alidu Seidu from the University of Ghana has suggested that the election outcome remains unpredictable, and a tight race between Mahama and Bawumia is expected. Ghana has never seen a party win more than two consecutive terms, adding another layer of uncertainty to the 2024 election.
