Ghana’s secondary bond market cooled noticeably last week, with total turnover dropping a steep 42.47% week-on-week to GH¢2.27 billion. This pullback in activity comes against a backdrop of steady liquidity but selective trading, as participants honed in on specific segments of the yield curve.
Trading flows painted a vivid picture of investor preferences: a pronounced bias toward the “belly” of the curve, where mid-term government bonds offer an appealing mix of yield and moderate risk. The 2031–2034 segment led the pack, snagging 46.4% of overall turnover at a weighted-average yield of 14.53%. This dominance reflects savvy positioning by institutional buyers chasing solid returns without excessive duration exposure.
Not far behind, the 2027–2030 maturities drew 41.9% of traded volumes, commanding a weighted-average yield of 13.75%. Together, these belly segments overwhelmed the market, underscoring a strategic shun of both short-dated and ultra-long bonds amid expectations of stabilizing rates.
Longer-term action stayed muted, with the 2035–2038 tenors making up just 11.7% of volumes at a higher weighted-average yield of 15.41%. The tepid participation here signals caution over extended lock-ins, possibly due to lingering inflation worries or fiscal policy uncertainties.
Bright spots loom on the horizon, however. Databank forecasts that a massive GH¢10.10 billion coupon inflow set for February 2026 will supercharge secondary market trading and amplify Ghana’s robust liquidity pool. “We believe this coupon-driven reinvestment wave is likely to sustain a gradual downward bias in yields, particularly across the actively traded belly of the curve,” the firm stated. This influx could spark higher volumes, tighter spreads, and yield compression good news for reinvestors and a potential tailwind for Ghana’s debt markets in the coming weeks.
Story by: Mercy Addai Turkson #ahotorfmonline.com