Fitch Solutions forecasts that the share of electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) buildings energy use will climb from 17% to 19.2% by 2034, fueled mainly by rapid urbanization and rising incomes.
Major markets like Nigeria, South Africa, and Ghana stand out for strong absolute growth in electricity consumption. Nigeria’s building sector demand, for instance, will surge 28.9% over the decade.
Yet grid instability poses a major hurdle. Frequent outages, high transmission and distribution (T&D) losses, and sluggish grid investments are curbing deeper electrification, particularly in peri-urban and rural areas. “As urban population expands, SSA’s urbanisation rate exceeding 40% by 2034 according to our Country Risk team, demand for modern energy services, including cooling, will outpace grid reliability improvements,” the report notes.
Without major investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure, electricity access will remain uneven. Bioenergy and traditional sources will continue bridging the gap for most households.
Bioenergy to Remain Primary Energy Source
Bioenergy will dominate SSA buildings energy use through 2034, even as electricity gains ground via urbanization and income rises—though grid woes will cap further progress.
Traditional bioenergy is projected to hold nearly 69% of total buildings energy use in 2034, dipping slightly from 71% in 2025. Despite the share drop, overall bioenergy consumption will grow 8.6% over the decade, driven by Tanzania, Cameroon, and Mozambique, Fitch Solutions states.
This ongoing reliance on biomass stems from slow rural electrification and scarce access to modern fuels, especially in populous nations like Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana.
Story by: Mercy Addai Turkson #ahotoronline.com