Energy Expert Benjamin Nsiah has cautioned that fuel prices in Ghana could rise further as the country enters another pricing window, with consumers expected to face higher prices from tomorrow, Wednesday, September 16, 2026.
Speaking on Ahotor FM’s Morning Show in Accra on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, in response to the projected increase in fuel prices, Mr. Nsiah said the situation is largely being influenced by developments in the international petroleum market, particularly supply risks arising from the ongoing conflict in the Gulf region.
He said one of the immediate measures available to households and businesses is to conserve petroleum products and ensure efficient utilisation to reduce the impact of rising prices.
According to him, government intervention has already helped to cushion consumers to some extent, but international market conditions continue to exert pressure on the domestic pump price.
Mr. Nsiah explained that crude oil prices are not directly used to establish fuel pump prices in Ghana, but there is a strong relationship between crude oil prices and the cost of finished petroleum products.
He said when crude oil prices rise, the cost of refined petroleum products can also increase, although other factors within the downstream petroleum market also influence the final price at the pump.
He described the current international market as uncertain, volatile and unpredictable, noting that conditions have deteriorated compared with the situation over the past two months and the same period last year.
Mr. Nsiah projected that diesel could remain within the GH¢17 to GH¢19 per litre range, with the prevailing market conditions potentially pushing it to between approximately GH¢18.99 and GH¢19.26 per litre, depending on the pricing window.
For petrol, he projected prices could move between approximately GH¢16 and almost GH¢17 per litre.
He stressed, however, that the actual pump prices would also depend on competition among industry players and interventions within the domestic petroleum market.
Mr. Nsiah explained that without some of these interventions and competitive pressures, diesel could potentially reach about GH¢20 per litre, while petrol could approach GH¢18 per litre.
He therefore expressed hope that competition among Bulk Distribution Companies (BDCs) and Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) would help prevent the full impact of international price increases from being passed on to consumers.
Gulf Conflict Driving Supply Concerns
Mr. Nsiah identified the conflict in the Gulf region as one of the major factors creating uncertainty in the international petroleum market.
He explained that disruptions or risks to production and refining activities in the Gulf region could affect the supply of petroleum products to the international market.
According to him, because Ghana depends heavily on imported petroleum products, any increase in the risk associated with securing supplies can translate into higher costs.
He said such risks could lead to increases in insurance premiums, freight charges and other supply-related costs, all of which can eventually affect the price paid by consumers in Ghana.
He further explained that the market does not respond only to actual shortages but also to expectations about future supply.
“When there is that shortfall or shortage on the market, basically the market works based on expectations,” he explained.
He noted that statements from political and other influential actors suggesting that petroleum supply could remain constrained for an extended period can create bullish expectations in the market.
When such expectations become widespread, he said, prices can rise even further because market participants begin preparing for prolonged shortages.
Ghana Remains a Price Taker
The Energy Expert stressed that Ghana is essentially a price taker on the international petroleum market.
He explained that Ghana has limited influence over global petroleum prices and therefore must respond to developments in the international market.
He said global price movements, supply disruptions, demand and market expectations can therefore quickly affect the cost of petroleum products imported into the country.
Mr. Nsiah also pointed to strong demand as another factor that could keep prices elevated.
He said consumers should therefore prepare for relatively high prices over the next few pricing windows.
Outlook for October
Despite the current pressures, Mr. Nsiah indicated that the situation could moderate somewhat from the first pricing window in October, although he cautioned that prices may still remain relatively high.
He suggested that the first October window could see some moderation, but consumers should not expect a dramatic reduction given the prevailing conditions on the international market.
He maintained that continued government intervention, competition within the downstream petroleum sector and efficient consumption would be important in limiting the impact of the international price increases on Ghanaian consumers.
Story by Stephen Kwaku Owusu Mintah, Ahotoronline, Accra.
