Following Ghana’s impressive 3-0 win over Madagascar on March 24, 2025, in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, the Black Stars are on a promising trajectory toward securing a berth in the tournament hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Before that, Ghana had annihilated Chad 5-0 in a similar qualifying match in Accra last Friday under the lights.
“I think we are in a great position, but this is also a danger.”-Otto Addo after Madagascar victory.
Sitting atop Group I in the CAF qualification stage, Ghana’s journey forward hinges on capitalizing on their current lead and navigating the remaining fixtures with precision.
Here’s a breakdown of what’s next and how Ghana can pave their road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Group I Overview
Ghana has 15 points from six matches (five wins, one loss), leading Group I. Madagascar trails with 10 points, while Mali and Comoros each have 9, Central African Republic has 5, and Chad remains pointless.
The CAF format awards direct qualification to the nine group winners, with the four best runners-up entering a playoff for a chance at the inter-confederation stage. Ghana’s +15 goal difference and five-point lead give them a firm grip on the group.
Upcoming Fixtures
Ghana faces four remaining matches in the second round of qualifiers, set for September and October 2025:
1. Chad (Away) – September 2025
2. Mali (Home) – September 2025
3. Central African Republic (Away) – October 2025
4. Comoros (Home) – October 2025.
These games will decide whether Ghana locks in direct qualification or pivots to a secondary route.
Roadmap to the World Cup
Direct Qualification as Group Winners: Ghana’s simplest path is to finish first in Group I, requiring them to hold or extend their lead. Winning groups in CAF qualifiers often takes 18-21 points.
With 15 already, Ghana needs just 3-6 more points to feel secure, though 21 (two wins, two draws) would all but guarantee it.
Game Plan: Chad (Away): Chad’s winless streak. (0 points, -19 goal difference) makes this a must-win. Three points here would bring Ghana to 18, putting pressure on rivals.
Mali (Home): Mali’s physical style and earlier competitiveness (they beat CAR 3-0 in November 2024) make this a marquee clash.
Ghana’s 2-1 win in Mali in 2024 boosts confidence, and a home victory at Accra Sports Stadium or Baba Yara Stadium—where they’ve been unbeaten for over two decades—could push them to 21 points.
Central African Republic (Away): CAR upset Ghana 2-1 in June 2024, but Ghana’s recent form (8 goals scored, none conceded in two games) suggests they can at least draw. A win would take them to 24 points, sealing the deal.
Comoros (Home): After a shock 1-0 loss in Moroni in 2023, Ghana will seek revenge. A win here could see them finish with 27 points—a perfect campaign.
A realistic target is winning against Chad and Comoros (21 points), with draws or better against Mali and CAR. Even one win and three draws (19 points) might suffice, given their goal difference edge over Madagascar (+6) and Mali (+4).
Backup Plan: Second-Place Playoff
Should Ghana slip to second, they’d need to rank among the four best runners-up:
Top runners-up typically hit 13-15 points. Ghana’s 15 points already position them well, but they’d need at least 18-19 to stay competitive across groups.
Playoff Path: The four best second-placed teams play a mini-tournament (semifinals and final). Winning both games advances them to the inter-confederation playoffs, where they’d face three global opponents in a do-or-die format. Ghana’s pedigree—reaching the quarterfinals in 2010—could shine here, but it’s a tougher road and would want to avoid all of that.
Strategic Outlook
Ghana’s recent dominance—crushing Chad 5-0 and Madagascar 3-0—shows a team hitting its stride under Otto Addo. Their attacking flair (Jordan Ayew’s three assists vs. Madagascar) and defensive resolve (two straight clean sheets) are peaking at the right time.
September Doubleheader: Beat Chad away, then use home support to edge Mali. Reaching 21 points early would allow them to coast through October.
October Closure: A point at CAR and a win over Comoros would cap a strong campaign, potentially hitting 25 points.
Conclusion
Ghana is favored to qualify directly. Winning against Chad and either Mali or Comoros (21 points) should clinch Group I, especially with their current form and home fortress.
If they falter, 18-19 points as runners-up could still see them through the playoff route, but their focus will be on avoiding that gamble. The Black Stars’ road to 2026 looks bright—two more wins could have them packing for North America.
