The latest field poll by Global InfoAnalytics delivers a stark reality check to the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and its candidate, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB).
John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), has left Bawumia in the dust, holding a crushing lead of 51.1% of committed voters compared to Bawumia’s unimpressive 37.3%.
Independent hopefuls Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) barely register with 4.1% and 6.2%, while others barely scrape up 1.3%.
Even under the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama still wipes the floor with Bawumia, 49.3% to 35.9%.
Voter apathy is bleeding the NPP dry, with a staggering 16% of potential non-voters being NPP supporters—an indictment of the party’s failure to inspire.
Meanwhile, the NDC is steady, with only 3% of its base thinking of staying home.
Among floating voters, Mahama obliterates Bawumia with a 31-point lead (54% to 23%) and even pulls ahead among those withholding party affiliation, extending his dominance by 18 points.
First-time voters, who once looked like a toss-up, are now breaking decisively for Mahama. He leads Bawumia 46% to 38%, a significant improvement from the dead heat seen in July 2024.
To make matters worse for Bawumia, his support among Muslim voters—a group he should dominate—is slipping, dropping nearly 4% in the last few months. This demographic failure spells disaster for his campaign.
Perhaps the most humiliating blow is the defection of voters who backed President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020.
While 70% still cling to Bawumia, a whopping 19% have abandoned ship for Mahama, with Kyeremanten and Bediako each siphoning off another 5%.
In Greater Accra and Central regions, NPP’s former strongholds, Mahama has poached a shocking 20% and 37%, respectively, of the 2020 NPP voters.
The core issues plaguing voters include, economic collapse, unemployment, and a faltering education system—are dragging the NPP into the abyss.
The economy is in shambles, and voters know it. A whopping 70% of them have listed it as their top concern, followed by jobs at 62% and education at 48%. Bawumia can tout party manifestos all he wants, but they’re falling on deaf ears. Even here, Mahama’s NDC is beating the NPP by a 14-point margin.
The broader picture per the survey depicts a country in despair. 62% of voters believe Ghana is on the wrong track, a sentiment shared not only by the NDC faithful (88%) but also by disillusioned floating voters (74%) and other opposition parties (76%).
Bawumia may have a shrinking 64% of NPP supporters thinking otherwise, but they’re in a shrinking minority.
Akufo-Addo’s government is underwater, with only 36% of voters approving his performance, and an overwhelming 59% are disillusioned.
Nearly half the electorate (49%) rates the government’s performance as poor or very poor, with only 30% willing to say it’s good or better.
With the December elections looming, Mahama’s commanding lead in the critical regions and demographics places him in pole position to reclaim power, while Bawumia faces a perfect storm of failure.
Voters are turning their backs on the NPP and its hollow promises, looking for leadership in an opposition that’s poised to deliver the knockout blow.
Godfred Sey/ Ahotoronline.com
