NDC Station voter assessment survey of opposition strongholds in greater Accra region.

NDC Station
ndcstation@gmail.com
025.798.0428. 024.802.0251
Motto: Bringing NDC to your doorstep.

Press release

For immediate release
All media houses

NDC STATION VOTER ASSESSMENT SURVEY OF OPPOSITION STRONGHOLDS IN GREATER ACCRA REGION

Accra, Ghana 11 October 2024

           Section 1

1. Starting from Tema west Constituency, this is a twelve part series of voters assessment survey and an introspective analysis of Presidential voting patterns in NPP strongholds constituencies in Greater Accra region and how these patterns predict NDC’s overall electoral victories.
2. Before reporting on the survey, it is known that NPP has always won Tema West but all these victories come with a taste of defeat particularly commencing from the 2000 election to 2020 with the exception of 2016. The 2020 voters roll indicates that Tema West has a voting population of one hundred and twenty thousand two hundred and fifty eight (120,258). Since the 2000 election, with the exception of 2016 which was mud with unprecedented scale of the dumsor propaganda, the deceptive corruption tag on John Mahama by the opposition and a section of the media coupled with the laissez faire approach of counter communication and defense from NDC presented a unique paradigm of electoral outcome. President Mahama’s reputation and integrity has since been cleared by the office of the special prosecutor although they were never in question in the first place. After 2016, the pattern reverse to normalcy. NPP has experienced a steady decline of cumulative votes lost of 20% in the last six elections.

• Election 2000 — 64.30%
• Election 2004 — 58.80%
• Election 2008 — 53.67%
• Election 2012 — 50.70%
• Election 2016 — 57.77%
• Election 2020 — 51.40%

1. On the other hand, contrary to popular so called opinion about the allure of NDC in “elite” constituencies, the party has rather in past elections consistently surged in cumulative votes gain amounting to 18% in 2020.

• Election 2000 — 30.90%
• Election 2004 — 40.03%
• Election 2008 — 43.99%
• Election 2012 — 48.50%
• Election 2016 — 41.42%
• Election 2020 — 48.73%

1. This phenomenon is characterized by the growing youthfulness of the Tema West voting population as majority of the voting class are below 45 years and the party’s appeal to the growing youthful sect even in opposition. Such that, as the voting population grows, NDC marginal vote gain increases as NPP votes decrease. Maintaining this trajectory implies NDC will win Tema West both parliamentary and presidential sooner or later.
2. From the data above, we can deduce that, the uniformity of difference in percentage votes predict or determine the overall winner of the general election. For example, in 2004 and 2008, the percentage difference of NDC votes (44.09% – 40.03%) was 4%. *NDC won the 2008 election. Again, the percentage difference of NDC votes between 2008 and 2012 (48.50%- 44.09) was 4%. *NDC won the 2012 election
3. Likewise, the percentage difference of NPP votes in 2012 and 2016 was 7%. NPP won the 2016 election. It was same for 2016 and 2020.
4. With this trend, let’s be vigilant for an NDC victory come December 7. Thus, the 4% difference may repeat or double by 2 as NDC Station survey shows the party still maintains a commanding marginal vote increase in the Constituency. Section 2
5. NDC Station carried out a two day voter assessment survey in a number of electoral areas and polling stations across Tema West Constituency with one hundred respondents (find attached the questionnaire and responses). The responses show NDC in a position of marginal increase in votes as respondents embrace the value and impact of President Mahama’s policies such as the 24 hour economy, parents and most first time voters largely appreciate the “no fee stress” policy and also the women’s bank is appealing to women who own table top businesses. Most respondents below the age 30 said they will vote for JM. A few above 30 said they will vote for JM based on the current economic conditions.
6. From the results, NDC Station can predict a cumulative votes lost between 20 and 24 percent for NPP and a net vote lost of 8%, accounting to the party losing the up coming election. However, NDC Station can predict a commanding cumulative vote gain between 20 and 23 percent and a net vote gain of 10% contributing to the party winning the general election on December 7

Signed

For further inquiries please contact

NDC Station
Mr Smith P Boahene
Email: ndcstation@gmail.com
Phone: 025.798.0428